Analysis of possibilities - Part I

10:00 AM on the day of Poll results - Congress is surging towards probably becoming the single largest party in the country. As a candid Digvijay Singh remarked, "For the second time, we shall see a UPA govt. headed by Dr. Manmohan singh and led by Soniaji Gandhiji (sic)" and am sure that the same line is going to be used by the NDA to criticize the UPA during its stint in opposition.

L.K. Advani leads in gandhinagar but would again have to settle as the leader of the opposition. Lalu's strategy of contesting from both Saran and Pataliputra is paying off. He is leading in one constituency while trailing in another. My glee knows no bounds when i see Renuka Chowdhary trailing. Renuka is a political analyst's prototypical example of an incompetent politician. She is neither a grass-roots person, nor has the hold to argue on national issues on public forums. Credit to her for carrying on from Khammam for the past five years as a mother, daughter, sister and daughter in law. Enough of the tomfoolery; Khammam has 'jaagoed'.

MNS has surprisingly struck a jackpot in Mumbai South. Milind Deora, due to lack of development initiatives may have to spend five years on the fringes as a sevak. Although I do not favor the MNS in any way, this is a fully justified mandate by the people. Kamal Nath, who was trailing for the past hour has started leading in Chhindwara. Mohammed Azharuddin, is surprisingly leading in Moradabad. The only agenda he had in the runup to the elections is to build a stadium in Moradabad. Yes Azzu Bhai.. Once the stadium is up, you may start an academy there and insure your old-age. And ya, dont forget the the cliched crap that you mumbled the other day on television : 'hospitals', electricity. You mumbled your way through cricket. I expect nothing special from you in the parliament. Mark my words, five years down the line , Azzu would say- "We tried our bets(oops best), you know, We served , you know, the people, you know but still there, you know, are neither hospitals, nor is there , you know, electricity here. However, you know, we have built a stadium here which would churn out cricketers who , you know, would play as Kaccha Limbus in the IPL"

Kalaignar is leading in a major way in TamizhNaad. BJP has shamelessly attributed this mandate to the incursion of Vijayakanth in politics. Left parties have been amazingly done-in by the Cong TMC and the Cong UDF alliances in Kokata and Kerala. In retrospect, it seems to have been a masterstroke by the Congress in both the states in going to bed with the Left's opposition.

Potential PM Mayawati has bagged 44 seats till now. My earlier analysis was that Mayawati works on the long tail strategy and that has been proved correct.



If we see a break-up of Mayawati's victory, 60pc of her seats have come from the UP and 40pc from non UP. The entire count goes on to a mammoth 44 (for a non national level party). Giving attention to the long tail always pays dividends. Maywati's victory simply proves that fact. However, in the context of Indian elections, I find it weird that this strategy works. Consider a case where I might need to expect Maya to carry on development activity in my constituency which is in the heart of Mumbai, Maharashtra, a constituency unknown to Maya and here party(hench)men. The core fact is that Maya is plainly looking to establish a national presence with her cliched and inconsequential Dalit ki Beti ranting while not having a firm agenda on development and strategic progress. This is my primary and only argument in not favouring Maya Behen ever as a PM.

Mamata Di has hit the jackpot this time after abysmally losing out last time round while being in the fold of the NDA. Consider this : Last time, the CPM bagged 35 out of the total of 42 seats for which they were fighting on.

Its been a while, I have been garnering facts for this post over the morning today. Currently, Cong is at 208 nationally. A projection coming out is Cong (208) + Left(31) + Fourth Front(40) > 272. I feel Cong should not cut the umbilical cord with the Left. While, the Left parties are a pain in the ruling alliance, they would be a PAIN in the opposition. The Left parties are not averse to walk outs and bandhs and I, as a tax payer am just not keen on having a 30pc cut on my pay every year just to see a lack of quorum in the parliament all the time.

Also, if the Left is going to sit out of a UPA alliance, the only big party that remains is the BSP. Hell, again, I am just not keen on having my tax money build statues of Kanshiram, and Behenji in all parks all across the nation.

>>First among a set of posts. >>